Leading Indicator (Daily): The chart below shows the gap between 10-year and shorter-term US Treasuries (3-month in blue, 2-year in red). Historically, a recession has followed within 12-18 months when these indicators have been in negative territory over at 2-3 month period.

Current Indicator (Weekly): The chart below shows weekly new claims for unemployment insurance in North Carolina. A significant rise in new claims sustained over multiple weeks occurred in the early stages of past recessions. Note that there are often spikes and dips in claims in December-January each year and during/after major weather events.

Current Indicator (Monthly): The state unemployment rate has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points either immediately prior to or at the beginning of all recent recessions. One caveat is that the monthly state unemployment rates are revised at the end of each year, which reduces the reliability of the unemployment rate as a recession indicator in real time.

Current Indicator (Monthly): Year-over-year growth in non-farm employment (blue) and annualized rate of change in non-farm employment (red) have declined sharply in the early stages of recent recessions. Job growth has also slowed in advance of most recent recessions, but job growth has also slowed at times not immediately followed by a recession. The red line will react to changes more quickly but is a noisier data series.

Leading/Current Indicator (Monthly): Building permits for single-family homes have fallen for multiple months in advance of and during most recent recessions (except the 2001 recession).

Leading/Current Indicator (Monthly): The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen substantially immediately prior to and/or at the beginning of all recent recessions. There have been temporary declines sustained over several months, however, without a recession immediately following (e.g., during government shutdowns, major geopolitical events, etc.).