01 - Leading Indicators

Blue - Philadelphia Fed LEI
Red - Chicago Fed National Activity (3 month Average)
Black - Wilshire US Large Cap Price Index

The Chicago National Activity Index is a good indicator of recessions when it falls below -0.7, so 0.07 has been added to the index in this chart.

USSLIND has been scaled by 60% to match the other indexes.

02- Real Consumer Spending And GDP

03 - Market Valuation

Green - Market Capitalization to GDP
Orange - Price/Profits
Blue - Tobin Q Ratio of Capitalization to Replacement Value

04 - Recession

Red - Philadelphia Fed Leading Indicator
Purple - Smoothed Recession Probability
Blue - NBER Recession Dates
Green - Chicago Fed National Activity Index

05 - Yield Curve And Financial Stress

Red - Yield Curve ( 10Yr - 2 Yr )
Blue - 5 Year Swap Rate - 1 Year Swap Rate
Green - Cleveland Fed Financial Stress

Bond Investors lower their interest expectations well in advance of an economic downturn. As a recession approaches, yield on shorter term bonds are usually higher than longer term bonds which is called the inverted yield curve seen when the difference of long term bond interest minus short term interest is negative.

06 - Lending Standards and Loan Delinquency

Red - Banks tightening lending standards makes it more difficult for businesses to refinance.

Blue - Delinquencies on Commercial and Industrial Loans

Purple - Delinquencies on Credit Cards

07 - Labor Market

08 - Orders And Production

Red - Capital Goods Orders
Blue - Industrial Production

09 - Corporate

Purple - Business Sales
Blue - Operating Surplus
Red - Profits

10 - Investment

11 - Stock Market Momentum

This chart shows the stock market year over year change.

12 - Money Flow

Blue - Retail Money (Dumb)
Red - Institutional (Smart)

Institutional and Retail Investors tend to increase cash before recessions.

13 - Dollar And Trade

Blue - Exports
Red - Imports
Green - Dollar

14 - China

I created this chart after reading Currency Wars by James Rickards

"The impact on the world monetary system (in 2009 & 2010) was swift and effective. As the Fed printed more money in its QE programs, much of that money found its way into China. The more money the Fed printed, the more money China had to print to maintain the peg. There was less excess capacity in China to absorb the new money without causing inflation. "

15 - Inflation

Blue - 5 Year Break Even Inflation Rate
Red - 5 Year Forward Inflation Expected Rate
Orange - Michigan University Inflation Expectation
Black - Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation

16 - Gold